The law of averages and how getting it wrong leads to all sorts of magical beliefs

Because we live in a dangerous world we filter a lot of the danger out and this leads us to get false comfort in praying.  We have confirmation bias - we pick out data that seems to fit and justify what we have already believed.  We also have optimism bias - a feeling or belief that if something terrible happens to our community or society that we are likely to be exceptions or will be hit lightly.  With these traits, there can be nothing really noble about prayer or casting spells.  They can be painted over with pink paint and sweetened but they remain toxic slow poison.  They lead to damage you will never discern for the picture will get more complex and lies always lead to more lies.

Religion manipulates believers as follows.
There are 1000 prayers which can get a good or bad response.
You are 50% likely to get good or bad.
You get good 999 times.
You have one more time left.
People will assume that you will get good.
That is actually wrong. It is still 50% likely that you will get good and 50% likely that you will get bad.
Human nature is terrible at predicting outcomes and especially when they want to believe the outcomes will be good.
That lack of skill we all have is extremely useful to religionists. They depend on it to get you to think that prayer works and that healers can cure you by using God's power. It works to keep you dangling on living on false hope in religion and in what it says.

Think of how it is true that the one more time does not have to be good and how miraculous and unbelievable it is.  That should be a warning when we think we are confronted with a supernatural event such as a response to prayer or a miracle.


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